===============================
AFTER THE SHOW
Movies, TV, Culture and Society
Number 501, June 6, 2010
===============================
HOLLYWOOD'S NEXT 10 YEARS:
IT WILL SURVIVE, AFTER ALL
Financially, it'll overcome big drops in DVD
sales; creatively, it's another story
By John Greenwald
This is the last of a series looking to the future of TV news, TV entertainment, film criticism and, today, movies. Today's column is also my last weekly "After the Show." For details, see the accompanying "Show's' over" box.
If I had written this at the beginning of 2009, it would have been a grim affair. The film industry was a mess. Business and content were suffering.
First, theater attendance was flat, if not shrinking slightly each year. True, in 2009 the average American went to the movies 4.3 times annually, up 4.6% from 2008, the Los Angeles Times reported. But that was the first increase since 2002.
The industry disguised those numbers by inching up ticket prices. An average ducat was $7.18 in 2008, and $7.50 in 2009, according to the Times. Cinema owners depend on snack bars, and their ever-increasing prices, to stay in business.
Of course, the real money for Hollywood, and the real profits, was DVD sales. But they began dropping sharply from their peak of $12 billion in 2004. By 2009, DVD sales had fallen 27% to $8.6 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Next, Hollywood felt it was beset by piracy, costing it $6 billion a year in lost DVD sales and illegal movie downloads on Web. Only last month, the producer of the Oscar-winning "The Hurt Locker" (2009) sued unnamed thousands, saying they illegally downloaded the war movie.
Worse, movie quality was stuck in teen-oriented action movies, comic book super heroes, seen-it-before horror films, gross-out comedies, and sequels and three-quels. The studios were aiming lower and lower, and filmmakers were loosing their skills.
What changed in 18 months? I could answer with one word -- "Avatar" (2009) -- but that's only half the story.
Yes, James Cameron's 3-D extravaganza broke box office records: $2.7 billion worldwide through May 31, according to Box Office Mojo. Most significantly, it retaught Hollywood that audiences will leave their TVs and computer screens for a truly exciting film experience, even if it means paying a few bucks more. Director Tim Burton's 3-D "Alice in Wonderland" did well at the box office despite tepid reviews, as did DreamWorks Animation's highly praised "How to Train Your Dragon," also in 3-D.
Hollywood is promising more 3-D pictures until 2-D become obsolete. However, I fear that soon enough it will turn 3-D into a worthless gimmick. Do I really want to see a 3-D romantic comedy starring Kirsten Dunst and Ashton Kutcher, or a serious drama with Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman, unless they take place on a roller coaster? No way.
But once filmmakers learn how to make 3-D films that use this new medium to create a new kind of filmgoing experience, motion pictures as an art form and as a business will have a fantastic future. That's 10 years into the future. (Meanwhile, computer animated 3-D movies have already expanded the family film market.)
More immediately, the studios are trying to push their wares directly into viewers' homes. A list of business plans, hardware, software and related deals could fill this page. The long-term goal is to do away with the cable box, DVD, Blu-ray and movie disk technology and replace them with a single box next to your 52-inch 3-D TV screen.
That magic box would connect you to your cable system, the Internet and a variety of streaming Web services for all the movies, sports, news and sitcoms you'd ever want to see. Probably satellite radio, too. Forget walking to your mailbox to get the latest film from Netflix. All you'll have to do is master the most complicated remote on Earth.
Already Time Warner Cable is working with the major Hollywood studios (of which it's one) to create "home theater on demand." Instead of waiting four months after theatrical release to see a movie on DVD or cable, you'll see one at home in just 30 days -- for $20 to $30 a screening, the Journal reports.
Meanwhile, Wal-Mart has just bought Vudo, the highly praised but little known software system that supplies movies and TV shows over the Web directly to HD TVs and Blu-ray players. To get that content, Vudo's been trying to license deals with major movie studios and distributors, but with limited success. Wal-Mart's massive buying power should change that. Also, Sundance and YouTube have set up their own deals with studios to rent movies directly to viewers.
If done right, Hollywood could more than overcome its stagnant box office and big loss of DVD income with "event" 3-D movies and negotiated digital downloads. Just don't count on 3-D TV. It's so expensive, you could take a family of 200 to see "Avatar" in IMAX 3-D for what it costs to buy a quality home 3-D TV system today. It'll take least five years for 3-D TV to meaningfully add to Hollywood's revenue stream.
And what about piracy? One side of Hollywood's still issuing reports and wringing its hands over it. But only last month, Jeff Bewkes, chairman and CEO of Time Warner (Warner Bros. movies, HBO, CNN, etc.) told Wall Street that piracy has stabilized and now has a limited impact on Time Warner.
The film business will slowly improve during the next 10 years. Movies are the most powerful story-telling medium yet invented. And technology will make movie going more convenient than ever.
One big problem: The studios are far behind the technology in making films people will go their way to see. An "Avatar" will come along only once every 10 years, if that. 3-D will save neither the industry nor the art form. That will take adventurous, cliché-hating studios and filmmakers up to this new decade's brand new creative challenges.
-- 30 --
'SHOW'S' OVER
This is my last weekly "After the Show" column for the Waterbury Sunday Republican. "After the Show" has lasted 501 columns and more than 10 years. Not a bad run, as they say in show business. If I want to write the occasional column, the editors say they'll make room.
"After the Show" began as an experiment: a weekly essay on movies and television, as opposed to a column of reviews. The idea was to capture the spirit and ideas of conversations friends have after they've seen a film together. I hope I've achieved that.
A few thanks:
To you, the readers. Whether to praise or pan, you've said you were regular readers. I appreciate your loyalty.
To the talented people who make films and TV shows. Without your work, our lives would be much less rewarding.
To Executive Editor Jon F. Kellogg, who took a gamble, and to Features Editor Debra Aleksinas, who always encouraged me.
And to my wife, the lovely Rita Lipman, whose copy reading was invaluable, and whose support as I struggled with illness and injury was absolutely essential.
-- John Greenwald
Readers can e-mail John Greenwald at johnedit@comcast.net.
-- 30 --
AFTER THE SHOW
Movies, TV, Culture and Society
Number 501, June 6, 2010
===============================
HOLLYWOOD'S NEXT 10 YEARS:
IT WILL SURVIVE, AFTER ALL
Financially, it'll overcome big drops in DVD
sales; creatively, it's another story
By John Greenwald
This is the last of a series looking to the future of TV news, TV entertainment, film criticism and, today, movies. Today's column is also my last weekly "After the Show." For details, see the accompanying "Show's' over" box.
If I had written this at the beginning of 2009, it would have been a grim affair. The film industry was a mess. Business and content were suffering.
First, theater attendance was flat, if not shrinking slightly each year. True, in 2009 the average American went to the movies 4.3 times annually, up 4.6% from 2008, the Los Angeles Times reported. But that was the first increase since 2002.
The industry disguised those numbers by inching up ticket prices. An average ducat was $7.18 in 2008, and $7.50 in 2009, according to the Times. Cinema owners depend on snack bars, and their ever-increasing prices, to stay in business.
Of course, the real money for Hollywood, and the real profits, was DVD sales. But they began dropping sharply from their peak of $12 billion in 2004. By 2009, DVD sales had fallen 27% to $8.6 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported.
Next, Hollywood felt it was beset by piracy, costing it $6 billion a year in lost DVD sales and illegal movie downloads on Web. Only last month, the producer of the Oscar-winning "The Hurt Locker" (2009) sued unnamed thousands, saying they illegally downloaded the war movie.
Worse, movie quality was stuck in teen-oriented action movies, comic book super heroes, seen-it-before horror films, gross-out comedies, and sequels and three-quels. The studios were aiming lower and lower, and filmmakers were loosing their skills.
What changed in 18 months? I could answer with one word -- "Avatar" (2009) -- but that's only half the story.
Yes, James Cameron's 3-D extravaganza broke box office records: $2.7 billion worldwide through May 31, according to Box Office Mojo. Most significantly, it retaught Hollywood that audiences will leave their TVs and computer screens for a truly exciting film experience, even if it means paying a few bucks more. Director Tim Burton's 3-D "Alice in Wonderland" did well at the box office despite tepid reviews, as did DreamWorks Animation's highly praised "How to Train Your Dragon," also in 3-D.
Hollywood is promising more 3-D pictures until 2-D become obsolete. However, I fear that soon enough it will turn 3-D into a worthless gimmick. Do I really want to see a 3-D romantic comedy starring Kirsten Dunst and Ashton Kutcher, or a serious drama with Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman, unless they take place on a roller coaster? No way.
But once filmmakers learn how to make 3-D films that use this new medium to create a new kind of filmgoing experience, motion pictures as an art form and as a business will have a fantastic future. That's 10 years into the future. (Meanwhile, computer animated 3-D movies have already expanded the family film market.)
More immediately, the studios are trying to push their wares directly into viewers' homes. A list of business plans, hardware, software and related deals could fill this page. The long-term goal is to do away with the cable box, DVD, Blu-ray and movie disk technology and replace them with a single box next to your 52-inch 3-D TV screen.
That magic box would connect you to your cable system, the Internet and a variety of streaming Web services for all the movies, sports, news and sitcoms you'd ever want to see. Probably satellite radio, too. Forget walking to your mailbox to get the latest film from Netflix. All you'll have to do is master the most complicated remote on Earth.
Already Time Warner Cable is working with the major Hollywood studios (of which it's one) to create "home theater on demand." Instead of waiting four months after theatrical release to see a movie on DVD or cable, you'll see one at home in just 30 days -- for $20 to $30 a screening, the Journal reports.
Meanwhile, Wal-Mart has just bought Vudo, the highly praised but little known software system that supplies movies and TV shows over the Web directly to HD TVs and Blu-ray players. To get that content, Vudo's been trying to license deals with major movie studios and distributors, but with limited success. Wal-Mart's massive buying power should change that. Also, Sundance and YouTube have set up their own deals with studios to rent movies directly to viewers.
If done right, Hollywood could more than overcome its stagnant box office and big loss of DVD income with "event" 3-D movies and negotiated digital downloads. Just don't count on 3-D TV. It's so expensive, you could take a family of 200 to see "Avatar" in IMAX 3-D for what it costs to buy a quality home 3-D TV system today. It'll take least five years for 3-D TV to meaningfully add to Hollywood's revenue stream.
And what about piracy? One side of Hollywood's still issuing reports and wringing its hands over it. But only last month, Jeff Bewkes, chairman and CEO of Time Warner (Warner Bros. movies, HBO, CNN, etc.) told Wall Street that piracy has stabilized and now has a limited impact on Time Warner.
The film business will slowly improve during the next 10 years. Movies are the most powerful story-telling medium yet invented. And technology will make movie going more convenient than ever.
One big problem: The studios are far behind the technology in making films people will go their way to see. An "Avatar" will come along only once every 10 years, if that. 3-D will save neither the industry nor the art form. That will take adventurous, cliché-hating studios and filmmakers up to this new decade's brand new creative challenges.
-- 30 --
'SHOW'S' OVER
This is my last weekly "After the Show" column for the Waterbury Sunday Republican. "After the Show" has lasted 501 columns and more than 10 years. Not a bad run, as they say in show business. If I want to write the occasional column, the editors say they'll make room.
"After the Show" began as an experiment: a weekly essay on movies and television, as opposed to a column of reviews. The idea was to capture the spirit and ideas of conversations friends have after they've seen a film together. I hope I've achieved that.
A few thanks:
To you, the readers. Whether to praise or pan, you've said you were regular readers. I appreciate your loyalty.
To the talented people who make films and TV shows. Without your work, our lives would be much less rewarding.
To Executive Editor Jon F. Kellogg, who took a gamble, and to Features Editor Debra Aleksinas, who always encouraged me.
And to my wife, the lovely Rita Lipman, whose copy reading was invaluable, and whose support as I struggled with illness and injury was absolutely essential.
-- John Greenwald
Readers can e-mail John Greenwald at johnedit@comcast.net.
-- 30 --
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